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If you want to freak out a Joe Biden campaign insider, just use the word landslide. Sure, they’re willing to acknowledge that, with less than three weeks until Election Day, things look encouraging. Biden has maintained a lead in national polls since March, and lately the spread has widened into double digits. Polling averages for crucial battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin—show Biden ahead. Reach states—North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, even Texas, for crying out loud—appear well within reach. Donald Trump’s campaign is running on cash fumes; Biden’s is setting fundraising records. Early-voting data is skewing Democratic. “At this point in 2016, among people who had never voted before, Democrats had a lead of 5.9 points. This year Democrats have an 11.3% advantage,” says Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, a political data analysis firm. “Infrequent voters? At this point in 2016, Democrats were up by 15—now it’s 20.3. That’s pretty telling in terms of where the intensity lies.”
Fine, fine, fine, the Biden people say, with an edge in their voices that goes beyond professional caution—and the cliché that “the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.” That’s because their internal numbers show a tighter race. Trump isn’t winning, but things are too close to tamp down the nervousness among Biden campaign operatives, let alone for them to start dreaming of a landslide. “I’m still very anxious,” a person familiar with the campaign’s thinking says. “Michigan is going to be close. North Carolina is going to be close. Florida is going to be very close.”
Their top final-days worries are both rational and familiar: that the polls are undercounting “shy”—or downright hostile—Trump supporters. That the president, possibly with help from foreign actors, will spread some disinformation that is damaging even though it’s false. This was a significant concern even before Wednesday’s New York Post–Rudy Giuliani concoction, with emails purporting to show Biden had lied about not tailoring Ukrainian policy, as vice president, to benefit his son Hunter. The story, however, wasn’t just full of factual holes; it was aiming at a subject that simply hasn’t stuck to Biden with voters, particularly as a deadly pandemic continues to kill Americans and ravage the economy. This latest attempted distraction seems to be hitting the same dead end as the previous shiny objects—with some grim help from Trump himself. For months his campaign has tried to make this election about law and order, or Barack Obama, or the Supreme Court. Yet Trump, his wife, and their son, Barron, contracting COVID-19 dragged the conversation directly back to the playing field Biden wants to be on: the incumbent’s failure to get the virus under control.
Interestingly, one potentially problematic item has slid down the Biden camp’s list of fears, at least for now: polling place voter intimidation. Aside from some pro-Trump yelling and sign waving in Fairfax, Virginia, in mid-September, things have gone remarkably quietly so far. Perhaps the Proud Boys are saving a show of force until November 3. But at the moment the Biden campaign is more worried about hyperventilating media accounts of minor disruptions scaring off voters, and about winning court cases to ensure that enough polling places and drop boxes are available.
While no one in Bidenworld is projecting a landslide, or showing any sign of overconfidence, the candidate’s braintrust has been gaming out what to do if Biden is declared the winner, especially if it’s by a modest margin—and Trump refuses to accept the results. “Look, we may need the entire campaign operation to move to Pennsylvania to ensure that absentee ballots are counted,” a Biden adviser says. “That’s going to require money and manpower, and we’re making sure we have all of that.” Longtime Biden senior aide Ron Klain, plus campaign legal heads Dana Remus and Bob Bauer, are among the top staff thinking through the multiple court actions that might be necessary. But any such confrontation would also require the use of every political tool available. Biden’s team is placing considerable faith in his vaunted ability to reach across the partisan aisle. The Democrat’s campaign has been closely tracking public statements by Republicans about the need for a peaceful transition of power. If Trump loses yet digs in his heels, Biden and his emissaries would likely make quiet calls asking Republican senators to stand behind their words. “It is absolutely jarring and damning for the sitting president of the United States to say, ‘I may or may not go,’” the person familiar with the Biden campaign’s thinking says. “There are mechanisms to move him out if he won’t go. But I think it’s all talk. People who actually know the president, he is a man of immense pride. And he would never allow any photos of himself being physically removed from the White House. But I say that and then I think, Mmmm, this is Donald Trump—we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
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