There are instances where Fields is holding the ball for too long and taking sacks because of his own doing. For example, failing to get his eyes to the right places based on pre-snap indicators and hesitating to pull the trigger to NFL open receivers.
In an alternate universe, the second-year quarterback could be flipped in this matchup if the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft goes differently.
And the career trajectories of these two quarterbacks could have easily gone differently if that was the case. Giving Fields the guidance and stability Belichick provides would benefit any young quarterback as it has with Jones and Bailey Zappe.
However, things are how they are, and all the Patriots are focused on getting a victory. In that respect, it’s hard to envision Fields consistently moving the ball against the Pats defense on Sunday as long as they stick to two keys.
One, win up front again by pressuring the quarterback with rush lane integrity, so Fields’s legs and the Bears running game don’t take over. And two, put the offense behind schedule by slowing down Chicago’s early-down sequencing and play-action concepts.
Likely with a similar formula as the past two weeks, the Patriots defense will have a clear advantage if it forces Fields to beat them as a traditional pocket passer.
Patriots Offense vs. Colts Defense
After facing his Indianapolis Colts defense last December, the Patriots are familiar with new Bears head coach Matt Eberflus’s zone-based system.
“Matt’s [Eberflus] obviously brought his very successful system from Indianapolis with him. In Indy, they led the league in turnovers for four straight years. Forced a lot of fumbles. They’re very disruptive on the ball,” Belichick told reporters on Wednesday morning.
Although they haven’t been lights out, Chicago’s defense has held up its end of the bargain for the most part and ranks a respectable 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The 14th-ranked pass defense has disruptive players at all three levels: edge rusher Robert Quinn, rangy linebacker Roquan Smith, and ball-hawking safety Eddie Jackson.
The Bears occasionally bring pressure on third down, but Eberflus’s defenses aren’t known for being heavy blitzing teams, relying on a four-man pass rush and zone coverage behind it. Eberflus mostly dials up cover-three and cover-two but is playing more man coverage this season.
In the matchup last season, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones struggled against the rotating zone structures through the first three quarters. The Colts intercepted two passes, and Jones only averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt and lost 6.55 expected points added.
As a result, New England trailed 20-0 heading into the fourth quarter, with the running game also struggling on only 19 carries due to the game script (Stevenson – 10 rushes, 38 yards).
Eventually, Jones began to figure out Indianpolis’s game plan, throwing for 142 passing yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. It was too little too late that night, but with another battle against Eberflus this week, the Patriots can build on that fourth-quarter success.