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Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “prolonged conflict” in Ukraine, and could resort to drastic measures if the fighting doesn’t go his way, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.

During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday, Haines said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has sent a shock through the geopolitical order, “with implications for the future that we are only beginning to understand, but are sure to be consequential.”

Though Putin has focused his forces on Donbas after failing in the north, the U.S. does not believe he will be content with the eastern part of the country, Haines said.

“The next month or two of fighting will be significant as the Russians attempt to reinvigorate their efforts. But even if they are successful, we are not confident that the fight in the Donbas will effectively end the war,” she said. “We assess President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas.”

But for now Putin’s goal is to take control of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in Donbas and encircle Ukrainian forces from the north and south “in order to crush the most capable and well-equipped Ukrainian forces who are fighting to hold the line in the East,” Haines said.

Putin would also like to “consolidate control of the land bridge Russia has established from Crimea to the Donbas, occupy Kherson, and control the water source for Crimea,” she said.

The U.S. also sees signs his military wants to extend that land bridge to Transnistria, in Moldova, according to Haines.

Haines said Russia might be capable of achieving “most” of those goals in the coming months, but would need to mobilize more troops to achieve the last:

“We believe that they will not be able to extend control over a land bridge that stretches to Transnistria and includes Odessa without launching some form of mobilization. And it is increasingly unlikely that they will be able to establish control over both oblasts and the buffer zone they desire in the coming weeks,” Haines said.

But Putin is “probably counting on U.S. and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation, energy prices get worse,” she added.

Economic forces are at work in Russia as well, with sanctions from the West having a “pretty significant” impact on Russia, according to Haines.

“Among the indicators that one might look at are, for example, the fact that … we predict approximately 20% inflation in Russia, that we expect that their GDP will fall about 10%, possibly even more, over the course of the year,” she said.

The fighting itself has also worn on Russia’s capabilities.

“Our view is that the ground combat forces have been degraded considerably. It’s going to take them years … to rebuild that,” she said.

But degraded conventual forces could drive Putin to other means of exerting force.

“That may end up meaning that they have greater reliance in effect on asymmetric tools during this period,” Haines said. “So they may rely more on things like cyber, nuclear, precision, etc. And that’s obviously a shift in the way in which they are exercising their efforts for influence.”

The discrepancy between Putin’s high aspirations and his degraded conventional capability could lead to “a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory,” and “a period of more ad-hoc decision making in Russia” in the next few months, Haines said.

This could also manifest itself domestically.

“The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military actions to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict drags on, or if he perceives Russia is losing in Ukraine,” she said.

What could happen next?

“The most likely flashpoints for escalation in the coming weeks are around increasing Russian attempts to interdict Western security assistance, retaliation for Western economic sanctions or threats to the regime at home. We believe that Moscow continues to use nuclear rhetoric to deter the United States and the West from increasing lethal aid to Ukraine and to respond to public comments of the U.S. and NATO allies that suggest expanded Western goals in the conflict,” she said.

The next step for Putin could be to launch major nuclear drills to command respect from the U.S.

“If Putin perceives that the United States is ignoring his threats, he may try to signal to Washington the heightened danger of its support to Ukraine by authorizing another large nuclear exercise involving a major dispersal of mobile intercontinental missiles, heavy bombers, strategic submarines,” Haines said.

But so far U.S. officials have said they do not believe Russia is preparing to actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.

“We otherwise continue to believe that President Putin would probably only authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or regime,” Haines said.

Return ‘Em Right is launching its program to offshore anglers throughout the Gulf of Mexico today. By participating in a short online review of best practices anglers can receive free release gear valued at $100 to help reef fish survive release.

Each year, more than 10 million federally-managed reef fish are released, and at least one million of those will die after being released. A main reason is due to barotrauma, a pressure-related injury fish experience when reeled up from depth. Anglers may observe barotrauma when they release a fish, only to see it float away on the surface. For every one percent of landed and released fish anglers save through learning and using best release practices, over 100,000 reef fish could survive to grow, possibly spawn, and be caught again.

“I have enjoyed teaching my daughter to fish and know one way to keep the fisheries healthy for her generation is to release them properly. I hope Gulf anglers take advantage of Return ‘Em Right – free gear and training to benefit the fishery is a win-win,” said JD Dugas, recreational angler from Louisiana.  

Return ‘Em Right promotes best release practices, with an emphasis on proper use of descending devices, which research shows can improve long-term survival of reef fish by up to three times. Descending devices are weighted devices that help fish overcome buoyancy and injury by releasing them at depth. These devices come in a variety of forms including weighted inverted hooks, lip clamp devices, and weighted crates and boxes. 

“I used descending devices for the first time recently and I’ve seen them work firsthand. Not a single fish floated back up the entire day offshore fishing,” said Alexandra Spring, three-time IGFA World Record Holder.

Gulf of Mexico reef fish anglers 18 years and older are now eligible to visit the Return ‘Em Right website, review best release practices, and receive a package of release gear to use out on the water. The educational review is available to all individuals who are interested in learning best practices when encountering barotrauma, regardless of your age, location, or role in the fishery. 

“Return ‘Em Right welcomes all anglers to participate in the program and we are excited to be a resource to a community committed to preserving the future of the sport,” said Nick Haddad, Fisheries Communications Manager, Return ‘Em Right.

About Return ‘Em Right

Return ‘Em Right is a program that aims to reduce catch and release mortality from fish suffering from barotrauma in the Gulf of Mexico. The program is led by Florida Sea Grant, University of Florida, Gulf States Marine Fisheries Commission, NOAA and a coalition of anglers, industry groups, state agencies, universities, government and non-government organizations committed to maintaining healthy fish stocks and fishing access in the Gulf of Mexico. The project was selected by the Deepwater Horizon Open Ocean Trustee’s as part of a 2019 Restoration Plan. 

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice. 

broke the news that the Supreme Court had drafted a majority opinion that would strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, likely leading to the outlawing of most abortion services in dozens of conservative states.

In a brief statement on Tuesday, Biden said that the White House Gender Policy Council and the White House Counsel’s Office were working together to “prepare options for an Administration response to the continued attack on abortion and reproductive rights, under a variety of possible outcomes in the cases pending before the Supreme Court.”

So… what is the Gender Policy Council? The White House revived the office in 2021 with the goal of our own LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ spoke with Klein, who said that the White House spent the last year bracing and planning for the decision, including holding listening sessions led by Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, with health care providers, patients and advocates across Texas, Mississippi and Kentucky. Klein’s also held meetings in recent weeks with state legislators in other states where laws have similarly been passed restricting access to abortions.

“This court is poised to overturn 50 years of precedent,” Klein told Laura. “At the moment, what we are doing is working very hard to explore all options, every option to protect reproductive health care, including access to abortion, and we’ll continue to do that.”

A Biden adviser said the GPC is the hub within the White House on the issue, and will decide what options are available to protect abortion rights. “But the short of it is there’s no there’s no replacement, there’s nothing that can replace the protection of Roe versus Wade, if that goes away.”

One Biden adviser said that while the council is examining policy options, the Department of Justice will likely look at different state anti-abortion laws where the administration could litigate.

The president’s team is also thinking about the issue on a political level. With little hope that this Congress will eliminate the filibuster and pass a law enshrining the right to abortion, the Biden team is hoping that the issue can galvanize voters to elect pro-choice lawmakers.

“The more extreme Republicans and those who oppose this right … they put themselves in a difficult position because the strong majority of Americans support this right,” Klein told POLITICO last week. “Politically it is more motivating for Democrats and pro choice Americans than it is for that small minority of Republicans.”

TINA TCHEN, who ran the White House council on women and girls during the Obama administration and has worked with Klein, said that the council is coordinating different parts of the federal government to develop possible responses.

“This is a whole new era, and it’s why you want a group like a Gender Policy Council… to sit at the center, at White House reporting to the president that can command all of these different parts of the federal government to bring those resources to bear,” said Tchen, who left her perch at the group Time’s Up during the fallout over the scandal involving former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO. “There’s a little bit of a head start now to June [when a final Court decision is expected] to be looking at what options there may be.”

(West Wing Playbook will have more in tomorrow’s newsletter on what actions abortion rights advocates want the administration to take).

With help from Laura Barrón-López

TEXT US — ARE YOU SHILPA PHADKE, deputy director of the Gender Policy Council. We want to hear from you (we’ll keep you anonymous). 

Or if you think we missed something in today’s edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow.  Email us at [email protected]

A little bit of geographical trivia today — the capital of Liberia was named after which U.S. president?

(Answer at the bottom.)

THE PANDEMIC ISN’T OVER, PART 173:  ABC News’s JONATHAN KARL tested positive for Covid-19, people told Max, days after he attended the White House Correspondents’ dinner. During the dinner, Karl sat next to KIM KARDASHIAN, received an award, and interacted with the president. Tuesday seemed like the day that informal contact tracing texts started to go out: West Wing Playbook received several messages from people who attended the parties or the dinner who have since tested positive for Covid.

We reached out to Kardashian’s people for comment but have not heard back.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: moved to extend worker permits Tuesday, allowing hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers to be able to continue to use their existing work permits for nearly 18 months after they expire, our NICK NIEDZWIADEK reports. The order goes into effect Wednesday and reflects the latest attempt to address an immigration backlog of roughly 1.5 million work-permit applications.

BIG LABOR MEET-UP: CHRISTIAN SMALLS, the leading labor organizer behind the unionization efforts at Amazon’s Staten Island fulfillment centers,